For the 30th anniversary of Religion Watch, we thought it might be interesting to turn our analysis on RW itself; how well have we done in monitoring trends in religion? While we have been hesitant to make forecasts into the far future, trends, by their very nature, should have some shelf-life. As we follow them, religious trends should at least point to actual changes, even if they are far from irreversible. We have tried (not always successfully) to steer clear of marketers’ spin (what’s “trendy”) or following a single plotline, whether it be secularization, de-secularization or “post-secularism”; more often than not, these developments have moved in opposing and even contradictory directions. The trick is in telling the differences between momentary blips on the screen and more long-lasting changes and, judging from a small study we conducted, we have not done that badly.
To get an idea of our track record, the editors randomly selected 10 issues of RW between the period of 1998 and 2008, carrying a total of 71 articles (we excluded “Current Research” items). We then followed these trends up to the present to see to what extent they accurately reflect the religious landscape. Some of these changes were featured in subsequent articles and updates in the newsletter but, just as often, we looked at outside sources to confirm our accuracy in selecting and monitoring of trends. A few (3) of the articles were indeterminate in nature, taking into account conflicting reporting on whether there was an actual trend; one example of such an article was found in the December 2004 issue: “Europe and Islam—how inevitable is the conflict”. As might be expected, trends on religion and politics were the most volatile. That might be expected during an election season, but some articles just got it plain wrong. In the November, 2004 issue we reported on the enduring power of the Catholic vote, but subsequent elections have shown it to be weaker than we thought. Similarly, in the February 2006 issue, we reported on how “brick-and-mortar” Catholicism in the U.S. may be declining, but that Catholic ideas were becoming more influential in public and political life. Recent court decisions, especially the ones on gay marriage last June and the general political and policy climate, suggest that Catholic ideas and values are facing an uphill battle in a more secular culture. But the newsletter did better on religious political movements, such as the move to broader activism among evangelicals (February 2006 issue), and the rise of the Evangelical-Catholic alliance on a wide range of religious and political issues (July 2005).
Outside of the U.S., we did somewhat better in the religion and politics field. We saw new ties between religion and politics in Australia (September 2005) that continue today. Our article on Islamists moving back into government in Turkey in the September 2002 was indeed borne out. Not only did the conservative, Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party (AKP) win a sweeping victory at the 2002 elections, but it has defied many predictions by managing to stay in power since (currently holding 317 out of 550 seats at the Grand National Assembly of Turkey). This is partly due to the lack of a credible alternative. Our track record on Islamic developments has generally held up. In the September/October 2008 issue we did report on a possible breakthrough in the Sunni-Shiite divide in Lebanon, but our headline ended with a question mark. While there are still efforts to bridge divides between Sunnis and Shiites, and Lebanon remains a place with religious figures attempting to do that, the situation in other countries of the Middle East has become much more tense in regard to Sunni-Shiite relations. We were more on target with our report on a growth of democratic sentiment among Islamists; today it is widely held that Islamist parties and leaders can use democratic elections and sentiment to their favor.
In reporting on more institutional-based trends on religion, there were some shortcomings. We reported on an Anglo-Catholic revival in British society (September 2002) that was short-lived, and a “steady” spiritual concern among readers after 9/11 (November 2001), which is now widely believed to have been temporary. But such misreadings were in the minority. Some of the trends we spotted did seem to lay dormant for years but have now unfolded, such as the Vatican warming to greater decentralization in the church (November 2001); others seemed to us like no-starters from the beginning, such as a potential Hindu-Neopagan alliance (November 2001). A few trends we spotted very early on, such as evangelical Anglicans pressing for greater freedom to organize parishes (November 2000). The grand total on our performance? Of the 71 articles that we tracked, 52 were solidly on track in pointing to long-range religious change; just six of the trends were short-lived and pointed to no change on the religious landscape. We were unable to track 10 of the articles at the time we went to press (which does not necessarily mean that these did not reach long-term status), and three were indeterminate. As limited as our self-analysis is, it suggests that we are moving in the right direction. There is definite room for improvement, especially in the tumultuous world of religion and politics, where the best course of action may be “waiting out” a trend before joining the rest of the press in the rush to print.