01: Although many pundits and analysts have questioned the view that the “moral values” vote gave George W. Bush the 2004 election, there may be some truth to this position, particularly when regional and religious differences are taken into account,, according to a new analysis.
In Religion in the News (Spring), John C. Green and Mark Silk write that “moral values” (the term used in exit polls) mattered most among voters in the four U.S. regions that went for Bush: the Southern Crossroads, Mountain West, South and, to a lesser extent, the Midwest. The regions carried by Kerry gave far less importance to “moral values.”
The reason for the regional variation was the religion factor; evangelicals were the “backbone of the Bush moral values vote in all regions, with the Latter Day Saints [Mormons]…making a significant contribution in the Mountain West and Pacific, and the Catholics doing the same in the Middle Atlantic and New England.
The “moral values” terminology particularly rang a bell among evangelicals due to historical reasons, whereas other religious voters did not respond to such language in the exit poll questions. Green and Silk conclude that “Geography matters in American politics today above all because the religious configuration of the country varies considerably from one region to another.”
(Religion In The News, Trinity College, 300 Summit St., Hartford, CT 06106)
02: It has been widely assumed that evangelicals and other religious conservatives are strong supporters of the “Bush doctrine” in foreign policy, but now there is research backing up such an assumption.
Books & Culture (July/August), features a study measuring religious support for such positions in President Bush’s foreign policy as pre-emptive war, a stress on military strength, and a favorable assessment of the Iraq war. Latter Day Saints were the most supportive of these positions (82 percent in the favorable range), with evangelicals (70 percent), and Hispanic Protestants (59 percent), the next most favorably inclined.
The Catholics and mainline Protestants were more divided on such foreign policy issues while the Jews, black Protestants and secularist/atheists were the most opposed. Those who were most theologically conservative within each tradition were also the most supportive of the Bush doctrine. Those evangelicals and Catholics who voted and were conservative activists registered the highest support for the Bush doctrine.
(Books & Culture, 365 Gundersen Dr., Carol Stream, IL 60188)
03: Although there have been forecasts of amazing growth prospects for the LDS Church, provided it would continue to gain members at the same rate, a new study finds that even keeping members is a challenge for the church.
An article by Peggy Fletcher Stack in the Salt Lake Tribune (July 26) reports that groups such as the Seventh-Day Adventists or the Assemblies of God have been growing faster that Mormons. Moreover, attendance at weekly meetings is not as high as one would have expected; it is estimated that about 35 percent attend weekly, which would mean 4 million active members from a total membership of more than 12 million.
While there may be a number of other factors contributing to the slowdown, the discrepancy between LDS official statistics and available census results provides an additional indication that the reality behind mere numbers deserves closer analysis. According to LDS researcher David G. Stewart, who has conducted research on LDS missionary work in several countries, the retention rate for the LDS Church in places where it has been growing the most rapidly (e.g. Latin America and the Philippines) is significantly lower than for other denominations such as the Adventists and Jehovah’s Witnesses.
However, Stewart hastens to add that predicting the future is a difficult business: if countries such as China would open, this could boost a new growth.
— By Jean-François Mayer
04: The conservative turnaround in the Southern Baptist Convention did not result in a more evangelistic denomination, according to a recent study.
Baptists Today newspaper (July) cites a recent study suggesting that the SBC is less evangelistic than it was before the conservative reformation of the denomination 25 years ago, at least judging by the number of baptisms conducted in churches. The study, first published in the Journal of Theology of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary and conducted by Thom Rainer, found that in 1950 Southern Baptists on average recorded one baptism for every 19 members.
By 2003, the ratio had more than doubled to 43-to-1. The SBC has also recorded declines in baptisms for four straight years. Moreover, a relatively small number of SBC churches account for most of the baptisms; the majority of churches baptize less than 12 people a year. However, Rainer maintains that the conservative shift did not hurt the denomination. In surveying a group of churches aligned with the more liberal “breakaway” Cooperative Baptist Fellowship, Rainer found their baptism ratio was 92-to-1.
(Baptists Today, P.O. Box 6318, Macon, GA 31208-63108)